Last week marked a new low for unemployment rates in the U.S. since September. The largest decline in claims for unemployment in almost three months may have been bolstered by the fact that Veterans Day fell during that particular week.

Initial jobless claims declined to 323,000, which is a fall of 21,000 during the seven day period ending on November 16. According to a poll of economists conducted by Marketwatch, the expectation called for the claims to fall to 334,000.

Veterans Day Effect

Holidays can often cause a decline in the number of claims placed simply because people are busy celebrating, or forget that the office is closed that particular day. Veterans Day most likely added to the decline in jobless claims last week.

If this is truly the case, then the numbers will compensate for the extra drop next week. Either way, the jobless claims have fallen to the same levels as they were at the end of the summer. The problem is, it’s too hard to tell if this is because of an actual upswing in the job market, or if it is simply a seasonal pattern that will lead to another slump later.

Unemployment claims are a pretty good indicator of layoffs during a particular time period, but can not be used to accurately judge hiring intentions.

Longer-Term Numbers More Accurate

While the numbers from last week look really good in terms of unemployment claims dropping, longer-term figures are a much more accurate gauge of the economy. The past month shows a smaller decline in claims, which totaled only 6,750. This brought the overall number of new jobless claims to 338,500, which is the lowest it has been since the middle of October.

Is The Report Accurate?

Reading the reports is encouraging if you look at the numbers themselves. However, the unemployment reports may not be entirely accurate. As Wall Street Insanity reported earlier this week, the numbers in the unemployment reports leading up to the 2012 election were allegedly manipulated, showing a major decrease in jobless claims just ahead of the election. With this information finally coming to light, it begs the question of whether we can really trust the numbers in the report, or if we must simply try to judge the economy on our own. For now, I suppose we will have to take these numbers as truth.