Tesla’s Going Down: Cole Wilcox

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Just five short months ago Cole Wilcox, the CEO of Longboard Capital Management said that Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) would rise from $55 per share to $200. He couldn’t seem to sing the praises of Tesla loud enough back then.

Things have changed in just a few short months however, as Wilcox now warns investors to beware of the downhill slide he thinks is coming their way.

Wilcox told CNBC in an interview that, “The short side is the way to play the trade next year. 2014 is the year of the honeymoon ending for Tesla shareholders and ultimately people will be very disappointed as the economic reality of the company doesn’t catch up where the momentum is at today.” He went on to say, “Ultimately, I think we’re in for a wild ride to the downside as we go forward in the future.”

What Makes Wilcox Believe This?

Tesla Motors Inc reported earnings this week, and the actual figures did not match the expectations of Wall Street. While the company delivered 5,500 of the Model S vehicles in the last quarter, the earnings and overall revenue fell far short of what analysts expected the company to post.

After the earnings report was released, the company’s stock tanked as has dropped by as much as 16 percent in the aftermath. Shareholders were not impressed with the fact that Tesla beat its own expectations, or that the company overshot estimated delivery numbers by more than 500 vehicles. The stock has already begun a decline, that Wilcox believes will not be the last downhill drop for the company.

Who Else Agrees?

Stifel Equity Research analyst James Albertine agrees with Wilcox in his assessment of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA). He says that the next quarter should tell the tale for Tesla. He feels that the company’s capex will catch up with cash balances, leaving shareholders burned.

“Our question remains in 2014, what’s the extent of the cash burn? It’s [going to be in} infrastructure build-out, retail build-out, building to a European and global audience that has right hand as well as left-hand drive.”

Is The Company Facing A Demand Challenge?

According to Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla Motors Inc, the company is not suffering from a lack of demand. In fact, we reported earlier this week that Tesla is the number one selling vehicle in several cities in California. Musk claims the demand is not the issue, but rather that supply is not strong enough yet.

“We really are production constrained, not demand constrained,” Musk said during the earnings call earlier this week. The company is now producing 550 Model S vehicles per week, which is not enough to keep up with demand.

Musk has noted that the main issue with bolstering supply is the lack of cells. Because of a shortage of parts, Tesla has had to hold off on some vehicle deliveries in the U.S. in order to meet its commitments in Europe.

He also noted that he believes the company is capable of sustaining 20,000 cars per year in North America, but he doesn’t want to increase demand until he can supply the vehicles. A lack of vehicles would only serve to make people unhappy with the brand.

Overseas Expansion

Tesla is already offering cars throughout Europe and Scandinavia, and the Model S is set to launch in China very soon. However, Musk has cautioned that anyone in China who is interested in purchasing the vehicles should make an effort to do so quickly, so they are assured of a shorter wait time.

I certainly recommend anyone in China who does want to order the car to place their order fairly soon because it looks like that wait time may be accelerating. In other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait.”

Is Tesla Headed Downhill?

Tesla is strong, despite the small dip in stock price after the earnings hiccup. The stock is up more than 400 percent since last year, so a small dip should not be a panic causer for most investors. The company offers vehicles that are eco-friendly, attractive, and reasonably priced for the target market. So, is the company tracking towards disaster? Tell us what you think in the comments below.

Disclosure: Author represents that he has no position in any stocks mentioned in this article at the time this article was submitted.