The End Of The World Is Over: Nomura
According to a report from Nomura, the Japanese investment bank, the financial crisis is over. Many people forecast that this financial crisis would spell the end of the economic world as we know it, but Nomura’s team doesn’t believe that to be true.
In a research note from Michael Kurtz and a team of researchers titled “You’ve got to earn baby, earn,” the bank pointed out that going forward it was shifting its global strategy for the coming year. In the note, Kurtz wrote “There wasn’t any memo, but FYI the Global Financial Crisis is over.”
His reasoning behind this belief is backed by proof of the economy improving. This proof includes a strengthening U.S. property market, a lower balance on the U.S. – China debt, and a slow but sure return of Europe’s economy.
He notes, “Looking forward, we thus see 2014 as a year in which macrosystemic risks will not dominate equity performance – unfinished QE ‘taper’ business notwithstanding – but equally as a result, a year in which returns will not be spirited along by ‘risk compression’ and multiple expansion either.”
Kurtz believes that the stock performance in 2014 will center on earnings delivery. He says “The good news is, 2014 should serve up a reasonably robust growth platform for global corporate earnings.” Nomura’s research indicates that GDP growth will touch 7 percent next year, which is up from 6.1 percent this year.
Not all the banks in the market agree with Nomura’s research, and many of them view the coming year with a much more bearish bearing. HSBC analysts have said that although the stocks most likely won’t see the same “risk-on” rally that has characterized this year, 2014 will probably be a “lackluster” year for the equities markets.
Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen has told CNBC that he feels like investors who are overly bullish are “chasing the tail” of recent rallies in the equity market. He has indicated that he expects heavy selloffs in excess of 25 to 50 percent during the final three quarters of 2014.
Is the “End of the World” really over, or is Kurtz going to find out he is wrong? Tell us what you think in the comments below.