Blackberry May Be Throwing In The Towel

Image via Flickr/ Kārlis Dambrāns

Blackberry Ltd. (NASDAQ: BBRY) reported on Monday that it was exploring strategic alternatives for the future of the Company. These alternatives may include a joint venture, partnerships, or a sale of the company. The Canadian smart phone manufacturer has formed a special committee to explore these alternatives. The committee is headed by board member Timothy Dattels and includes CEO Thorston Heins. The Company’s shares initially rose nearly 10% on the news on higher than average volume.

Blackberry has had an infamous and rapid fall from grace, and was hoping to orchestrate a comeback with its Blackberry 10 product line. Unfortunately, the Blackberry 10 launch has failed to bring the Company back from the brink. The new phone and platform may have come too late. Blackberry shipped 6.8 million smart phones during its most recent quarter, although that number only included 2.7 million Blackberry 10s. Analysts had predicted almost 1 million more phones to be shipped during that period. The Board of Directors may feel pressure to take significant action now that it appears the Blackberry 10 is not performing as well as expected.

For the quarter ending June, Blackberry reported revenue of $3.1 billion. This was up 15% over the prior quarter, and up from $2.8 billion in revenue for the prior year quarter. Still, the Company reported a loss of $84 million at $0.16 per share. Blackberry reported gross revenues of $11.07 billion for the fiscal year of 2013, versus revenues of $19.9 billion for its fiscal year 2011. Annual revenues are declining rapidly as Blackberry products fall out of favor. The Company further had a loss of $1.25 billion for the 2013 fiscal year, versus profits of $3.34 billion in 2011. However, Blackberry may be on somewhat stable foot as it has net cash reserves of $3 billion.

The Company has a current market capitalization of only $5.66 billion. This is down substantially from a market capitalization of $83.02 billion in June of 2008. Blackberry hit a high of $148 in June of 2008. In the past five years, Blackberry’s shares have dropped over 92%. The story of Blackberry’s fall is illustrative of how quickly a technology company can lose market share, and essentially render itself obsolete. The Company was a leader in the smart phone sector, but quickly lost ground to Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Blackberry had a measly 2.9% of the smart phone market as of the end of March, versus a market share of nearly 45% in 2009.

There is still a substantial short interest in Blackberry shares, with nearly 146 million shares being shorted at the end of July for a short float of 31.79% and a short ratio of 5.66. The stock is currently trading at $11.3 near the 50-day SMA, but is trading well below the 200-day SMA. There appears to be resistance in a band from around $11.50 to $11.80. The price will need to break through that level on strong volume to confirm an upward pattern. The monthly volatility is at 4.19%, and the beta is at 1.64.

BBRY-Chart-8-13-2013

The underlying message from Blackberry’s most recent announcement is that the Company is essentially for sale. The question is who would want to buy Blackberry considering its current market position. Apple and Samsung are the biggest players in the smart phone sector. Yet, both companies are likely not salivating at the prospects of Blackberry with its minor market share. It is unclear what companies would benefit from the Blackberry 10 platform, although the Blackberry patent portfolio may have some value. With the future of the Company unclear at this point, it is uncertain whether the stock is a solid investment.

Disclosure: The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned, and does not intend to initiate a position in the next 72 hours.